The memory drama of "the more scarce it is, the more expensive it becomes" is finally beginning to loosen up. The report quoted TrendForce as pointing out that the German retail market experienced its first monthly decline in eight months in March, with a drop of approximately 7.2%. There are also signs of a decline in the United States, with some DDR5 package hosts experiencing a decline of more than 20% in March.
The Chinese market collapsed first, and DDR4 was even reported to have dropped by RMB 100 in one day.
What is even more exaggerated is the retail and spot goods in China. TrendForce cited information and mentioned that China’s mainstream 16GB DDR5 modules have dropped from RMB 1,300 to RMB 1,000, which is roughly equivalent to US$188.55 (approximately TWD 6,030.97 / HKD 1,477.72 / MYR 761.22) to US$145.04 (approximately TWD 4,639.21) / HKD 1,136.71 / MYR 585.56).
In addition, Chinese sellers and platforms reported that memory prices plummeted over the two days over the weekend. Some even said that some 16GB memory sticks (DDR4) fell by more than RMB 100 in a single day, which is approximately equivalent to US$14.50 (approximately TWD 463.92 / HKD 113.67 / MYR 58.56). If you think this is a "normal correction", it looks more like "someone is losing goods and the market can't catch it."
Why did it fall this time? Demand cooling + inventory digestion + production capacity returning
Combining the opinions of all parties, the short-term pressure is mainly concentrated on four things: consumer demand begins to soften under high prices, downstream inventory is accelerated, new production capacity (China and global) gradually returns to the market, and some "AI demand narratives" begin to be re-examined by the market. 16GB DDR5 on Chinese online platforms was marked down by 25–30% in March, and Huaqiangbei spot DDR5 prices even saw a 17–35% drop last week.
At the same time, the stock market reacts faster than the contract price. Someone in the community took the drop in Micron's stock price as an example, and mentioned that Samsung and SK Hynix were also weakening simultaneously. Of course, a drop in stock prices does not mean that the contract price will collapse immediately, but it usually means that the market is recalculating "how long can this shortage narrative last" as quickly as possible.
Server-side demand is still there, and contract prices are still supported.
However, TrendForce also cautions that this is not necessarily a full-scale avalanche. Contract prices are still on the firm side, suppliers are mostly tied to multi-year agreements, and demand for HBM and DRAM on the server side is still there. More realistically, the supply of DDR4 is converging, which is also supporting the price bottom to some extent.
In short, what you see now is "the highs are beginning to fall back", not "returning to sweet prices". But at least for gamers and DIYers who have been tortured by memory prices for half a year, there is finally some good news: memory will no longer only rise, at least it will start to fall.
For Southeast Asian players, the practical impact of this development around china’s memory market collapses: 16gb ddr5 drops from rmb 1,300 to rmb 1,000! germany fell 7.2% in the first m will be measured by update reliability, platform performance, and whether the next official communication delivers concrete follow-through.